Erik Meijer :

The Change Function is a simple theory that predicts the success of new technologies. Producers of new technology are overly optimistic and think “Build it and they will come”. Their conviction is that their technology is superior to anything that already exists. This is reflected in claims such as “Haskell programs are at least 10 shorter than the corresponding C programs”. Moreover, they believe their currently inadequate implementations will radically improve over time. This is reflected in claims such as “Soon, real soon, the speed of Haskell programs will approach that of highly optimized C code”. In short, they predict the chance of success as a function of the following product:
Supplier-Centric Adoption Model = F(10X better * Moore’s Law)
Obviously, I had been trapped into the supplier-centric point of view myself.
Normal users have a very different take on new technology. They hate technology for technology’s sake (probably the display on your VCR is also still blinking). They just want to get their work done with the least amount of effort, and moreover, they have little desire to learn new things. According to Pip Coburn therefore, the chance actual chance of success for new technology is a function of the following ratio:
Change Function = F(Perceived Crisis/Perceived Pain of Adoption)
By focusing on finding beautiful solutions for real problems, I had already nailed the numerator portion of the Change Function. From now on my goal in life would be to also drive the denominator down to zero to maximize my chances of success.

With java for the development language and the browser for the platform, I think that "GWT change value" is higher than ActionScript-Flash or C#-Silverlight :

  • Number of Java Developers > Number of C# Developers > Number of ActionScript Developers
  • Browser market share > Flash market share > Silverlight market share

When you know that Volta can target the Browser and Silverlight platforms, it is easy to understand why Erik is working on it...

Erik Meijer : Confessions of a Used Programming Language Salesman (pdf)

Pip Coburn : The Change Function: Why Some Technologies Take Off and Others Crash and Burn

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